Trying to predict what may happen in a given summer of baseball or guessing how an offseason will play out rarely makes sense. Even as it’s all playing out, extreme takes, rather than measured and rational ones, often gain more traction. For example, by May, many fans were certain this was the worst Cubs season ever. By the end of the Winter Meetings, those doomsayers had already accepted the team would never spend amid a disastrous offseason.
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In reality, the 2022 Cubs had their highest win total (74) since 2019, one more than the 2014 season that preceded some of the best years the organization has experienced. Their offseason, while not as exciting as those of the Mets, Phillies or Padres, didn’t have the feeling of catastrophe experienced by fans in San Francisco or Boston.
After last winter began with a small step forward by adding Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki, the building continued with Jameson Taillon and Dansby Swanson this winter. The huge splash fans desire has yet to really come, but there’s a direction, a path fans can follow and not have to wonder, “What is Jed Hoyer even doing?”
Hoyer may not have explicitly laid out every detail of his plan, but he gave hints and clues along the way. To win in 2023, the focus will be on defense and pitching. Beyond that, we’ll have to see what happens. There are obvious holes and areas to improve. And there are still moves to be made this winter.
As another year wraps, it’s time for me to go out on a limb and guess where the Cubs may go next. Outside of the Yu Darvish trade waylaying my plans in 2020, these predictions are becoming a tradition. Are they accurate? Well, I’m the one who always says it’s foolish to do these, but they weren’t awful last December. The Cubs’ pitching development clearly took a step forward, FanGraphs had quite a few Cubs in their mid-season top 100 list, and I actually undersold how many relievers the Cubs would add after the lockout who’d turn into quality contributors. However, we don’t need to relive me betting on Frank Schwindel and fading Patrick Wisdom.
That general success from last year likely means I go 0-fer here, but looking like a dope hasn’t stopped me yet. It’s probably my most endearing trait. Let’s get to the predictions!
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1. Ian Happ ends 2023 in another uniform
Well, after all that positive talk, this prediction won’t have fans too happy. But there’s more to this than just another core player being dangled at the deadline or allowed to walk in free agency.
It’s still too early for me to say whether the Cubs will be sellers at the deadline. They need to add another bat and some relief depth and it’s perfectly possible that they’ll still be in it come late July. It’s important that the Cubs take another step forward, as they did in last season’s second half. So this isn’t a prediction that Happ will be traded at the deadline. It’s more that an extension may be hard to come by and the Cubs could be in a situation where they won’t feel desperate to keep Happ.
Ian Happ is the first Cubs outfielder to win a Gold Glove Award since Jason Heyward in 2017. (Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)The optics here wouldn’t be great, of course. After finally finding consistency in 2022, Happ endeared himself to a fanbase that was waiting for him to live up to his potential and really put together a strong full season. He deserves credit for the hard work he’s put in and the player he’s turned into: a well-rounded athlete who helps on defense and at the plate and is respected in the clubhouse.
But after a wild offseason that saw spending around the game go to a level few expected, Happ likely isn’t taking the “hometown” discount. Brandon Nimmo signed an eight-year, $162 million contract with the Mets this offseason as a free agent. Will that total guaranteed money be Happ’s goal come winter? Nimmo was coming off his best full season, establishing himself as a strong center fielder and putting up 5.4 WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Happ is coming off a 3.5 WAR season, also his career-best, but excels in left field, a significantly less valuable position than center. Does he improve his offense in 2023 and test the market? Do the Cubs offer Happ a deal he finds acceptable this winter to make all this moot? Hoyer has to think about how he’s going to allocate his future funds, and perhaps giving a chunk of it to Happ doesn’t fit their plan.
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There’s certainly an argument to be made that it does, though. It would be nice to see the Cubs reward the players who have succeeded with them. Happ has reinvented himself and seems to enjoy playing in Chicago. Why break up a good thing? Those are all fair points, but there are other factors at play.
2. The Cubs’ minor-league outfielders emerge
Alexander Canario broke out last summer, but a terrible injury to his leg and shoulder while playing winter league ball really put a damper on any expectations for his 2023 season. Still, he’s a part of a very deep trove of outfield talent in the Cubs system. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs have six top-100 prospects, four of whom are outfielders.
For the Cubs to actually feel comfortable letting Happ walk — or even moving him in-season — then it probably means a couple of things have happened. The first will have to be Brennen Davis staying healthy and hitting his way to the big leagues this summer.
Davis is a huge question mark after missing a large chunk of last season due to back surgery. The issues weren’t structural, so the Cubs felt like they avoided a worst-case scenario. But the fact that his Arizona Fall League stint was cut short due to a stress reaction in his back doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll live up to his once-lofty prospect status.
Davis is reportedly doing well and working out, hoping to have a normal spring training and be ready to take on a regular load at the start of the Triple-A season. If he can perform as hoped, maybe a mid-season call-up is reasonable. Where he’d play is the main question as the outfield is currently filled with Happ, Cody Bellinger and Suzuki from left to right. But Davis could get some at-bats at DH and also fill in when the regulars rest. This is assuming everyone is healthy and producing, which is hardly a guarantee.
As such, the Davis part of this prediction feels the riskiest, and the one I have the least confidence in because of those back issues. But if Davis performs well, suddenly giving big money to Happ would seem odd. Yes, Davis could take over at center if Bellinger were to leave after 2023, but that’s a spot Pete Crow-Armstong is expected to take over. With that in mind, part of this prediction is that Crow-Armstrong will be up in the big leagues by September.
It’s a bit aggressive considering the left-handed center fielder only has one full season under his belt and he’s yet to reach Double A. But with the new rules encouraging teams to call up their top prospects at the start of the season, some have started using September as a time to get those prospects — Corbin Carroll, Josh Jung and Triston Casas to name a few — some early playing time while still keeping their rookie status intact.
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After a dreadful April, Owen Caissie was impressive at South Bend, and where he starts next season and how he performs will be interesting to watch. If he can put together a full season of offensive performance, he should continue to rise on prospect lists. Kevin Alcántara getting away from Myrtle Beach, which is death on power hitters, will help catapult him from very good prospect to elite. Look for Alcántara to have a tremendous 2023 and emerge as the impact bat the Cubs are searching for in their system.
The drought has to end eventually, right? As deep as the Cubs are with outfield prospects, they’re pretty thin, especially at the higher levels, in terms of infielders who project to be even close to as talented as Hoerner. That should make extending Hoerner a priority for the Cubs.
There are so many reasons to do it. He loves playing for the Cubs, he’s already a leader in the clubhouse and is trusted by his manager. He’s established himself as an elite glove at second, he’s proven himself at short and has finally found the right offseason regimen to get his body ready for the grind of a full season.
Hoerner may not be the middle-of-the-order bat the Cubs crave or the future superstar of their next great team, but he could turn out to be the heart and soul of it, the player who emerges as the face of a group that finally gets back to the top of the National League. Hoerner has some work to do and needs to improve his overall offensive numbers, but the Cubs should feel confident that with his work ethic and drive, he can get there. The fact that he needs to improve also represents an opportunity.
Far too often the Cubs have waited to extend their best players. They came to Kris Bryant about an extension after 2017, when his previous three seasons included a Rookie of the Year, NL MVP and a “down season” in which he still finished first in WAR (FanGraphs) in the NL. They wanted to extend Anthony Rizzo a year removed from free agency, when he’d already taken a below-market deal early in his career. They nearly locked up Javier Báez, but the pandemic skirted that deal. Ultimately, what the Cubs have failed to do (and what their counterparts in Atlanta have done) is act aggressively, early in a player’s career.
Alex Anthopoulos may look like a genius now, but he’s also taking on some risk that some of the players he’s extended end up injured or ineffective. That’s where being confident in your evaluations — while being willing to take on what amounts to a lesser financial risk than wading into free agency — comes into play. And of course, striking early is imperative.
Nico Hoerner led the Cubs with 4.0 fWAR in 2022. (Kyle Ross / USA Today)As far as second basemen go, there aren’t many recent deals that are good comps for Hoerner. David Fletcher received five years and $26 million following a shortened 2020 that is the outlier for his career (121 wRC+ that year, with 96 his high in any other season) thus far. Nearly five years ago, the Diamondbacks extended Ketel Marte for five years and $24 million. Like Hoerner, Marte had three more years of arbitration left, but he was coming off a below-average offensive season and was still two years away from really breaking out. Ozzie Albies’ extension with Atlanta happened in early 2019 and came in at a wildly team-friendly seven years and $35 million with two team options tacked on.
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It will likely take more money than Marte’s first contract with Arizona (he signed another extension this past spring), but the years make sense. A higher AAV than Albies also feels likely, but this all seems relatively doable for the Hoyer and the Cubs. If they can tack on at least two years, perhaps more, to Hoerner’s remaining three in Chicago and give him some financial security, there’s no reason the Cubs can’t lock up their second baseman for the next half-decade.
4. Another pitching breakout on the farm
The Cubs’ pitching department deserves some praise. Years ago, it was Brailyn Marquez or bust. Now, after a season in which Marquez didn’t throw a single competitive pitch, Caleb Kilian took a step back and D.J. Herz’s command went haywire, there is still plenty of optimism with their pitching.
Numerous pitchers made their big-league debuts, and Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Brandon Hughes all look like they can help in 2023 and beyond. Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson look like success stories after changes were made over the years to their pitch mix and style. Jordan Wicks developed a nasty slider and better breaking pitches overall, and both Porter Hodge and Luis Devers were big surprises in the minors.
There are more options to break out this season as well. Some Cubs staffers are big fans of what Riley Thompson, who has added a slider, is doing, and others feel like Ryan Jensen is on the right track as he continues an overhaul of his delivery that started last summer. Daniel Palencia is a personal favorite and could easily impact the bullpen soon, but has too much talent to him out of a starter’s role just yet.
Ultimately, though, the pick here is Kohl Franklin. At 6-foot-4 and over 200 pounds, Franklin has the prototypical starter’s build. After impressing in 2019 as a 19-year-old, Franklin lost his 2020 season to the pandemic and 2021 to injury. Even after all that time, he was pumping triple-digit heat last spring and had some observers wondering if he was on the verge of becoming one of the better pitching prospects in the Cubs system.
But with no in-game action the previous two seasons, the high expectations were probably a bit unfair — and perhaps a year too early. Over the course of the summer, Franklin struggled to find consistency and his command would come and go. This winter, the Cubs are making minor delivery changes with Franklin that should help with his timing and sequencing. His takeaway is being shortened and there are some areas with his pitch mix where they see opportunities for improvement.
Like with Riley Thompson, the Cubs believe they can add a slider to Franklin’s repertoire and started that work recently. The pitching department has gone through various versions of deciding how and when to add a new pitch to a player’s arsenal, and feel they’ve landed in a good place with their process.
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By using empirical evidence, hypothetical models, biomechanical data and coaches’ input, the Cubs have started to execute these initiatives at a high rate. Through this work, Palencia has added a changeup, Wicks his slider, Riley Martin developed a slider and curveball and Bailey Horn a slider, just to name a few. Franklin’s slider is one more they hope to add to the list of successes.
Franklin has always had a lot of talent. Staying healthy will be key, as it is for every pitching prospect, but he’s always displayed the ability to miss bats. His 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate last season suggests he should have a better strikeout rate than the solid 23.9 percent he posted last year. If his delivery adjustments can help him stay in the zone more often (he had a 12.7 percent walk rate) and the added slider turns out as hoped, there’s a real chance for him to emerge as another pitching prospect who has taken a big leap in the Cubs system.
5. Jed Hoyer will add a big-time bat
Perhaps there’s a big trade to be had this summer or the following offseason. Maybe next winter Hoyer goes all out for Shohei Ohtani and fills a rotation spot and the DH role in one signing. Free-agent-to-be Matt Chapman doesn’t represent the type of offensive impact one would hope for considering the team’s need, but adding him would bolster a defense that would be second to none in the game.
But the bet here is that Boston fails to extend Rafael Devers and Hoyer identifies him as the missing piece to an emerging team. Obviously the preference for Hoyer would be to just pay for Devers in free agency, but if he becomes available at the deadline, he has to consider being aggressive there as well. Devers would be the middle-of-the-order bat this team so desperately needs and plays third base, an obvious area of need. Will his defense hold up over whatever the lifetime of his contract will be? Who cares! The kid can rake. He’ll be 27 and seems to be hitting his stride offensively as an impact bat.
The Cubs could have nearly $100 million coming off the books next winter. Add Devers, another starter like Aaron Nola or Julio Urías (or Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito should they bounce back) along with kids like Davis, Crow-Armstong and some of the young pitching that could be ready in late 2023 or by 2024 (Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton and others), and suddenly you have a team that’s not just trying to compete at the back end of the playoffs, but can really try to win a World Series.
Six months ago it felt like the Cubs were light-years away from that type of reality. But a strong second half paired with a solid offseason should have them set up for a bright future that isn’t nearly as far off as some imagined.
(Top photo of Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner: Matt Dirksen / Getty Images)
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